The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) has had a tumultuous 2024 mired by regulatory issues, negative publicity, lay-offs, rising debt, stock dilution, and mounting losses capped off by a 33,000 worker machinists’ union strike.
The aerospace sector giant has seen its stock lose 46.2% year-to-date (YTD), hitting levels not seen in over two years. Many investors may believe Boeing’s incumbent position as an American monopoly and global duopoly for commercial airplane manufacturing makes it a viable long-term hold despite the short-term pain.
The incoming Trump administration’s core “Made in America” theme drives its initiative to bolster American supply chains in the name of national security. Many believe that Boeing is too vital to America to go under.
Let's take a look at five reasons to buy Boeing stock—and one reason to avoid it altogether.
1. The Union Strike Is Finally Over; Production Can Resume
The Boeing machinists’ strike started on Sept. 13, 2024 when over 33,000 workers walked off the job at the Everett and Renton plants in Seattle. This put an immediate production halt to its Boeing 737, 777, and 767 airplanes, pushing the company's losses to more than $6 billion in its third quarter of 2024. Analysts believe Boeing lost around $5.5 billion in earnings due to the strike.
The resulting cash crunch prompted Boeing to raise over $20 billion in a stock offering to improve its liquidity position and fend off potential downgrades from ratings agencies. This move, however, resulted in shareholder dilution. The company is also laying off 10% of its 177,000-person workforce in a restructuring effort to trim costs.
On Nov. 4, 2024, Boeing reached a settlement with the machinists for a 38% pay raise over four years, a $12,000 ratification bonus, and improved 401k benefits. With nearly 59% of the strikers voting to approve the new contract, the strike officially ended, and production is set to resume in a few weeks.
2. Boeing Has Over $500 Billion of Backlog
While Boeing is often referred to as part of a global duopoly with Airbus SE (OTCMKTS: EADSF), U.S. airlines tend to favor Boeing due to its strong domestic presence and longstanding relationships. However, American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ: AAL) continues to place significant orders with Airbus, such as the A321neo.
Boeing holds a dominant position in the U.S. market for commercial aircraft. The post-pandemic travel boom has driven all the major airlines to upgrade their fleets, which means more airplane orders for Boeing. Actually, more than they can handle.
The company is currently managing substantial order backlogs for several major airlines:
- United Airlines Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: UAL) is waiting on 497 airplanes and has cut its 2024 deliveries by 102 fewer planes.
- Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE: LUV), which exclusively only flies Boeing 737 planes, is still waiting on the delivery of 432 Boeing 737 Max airplanes.
- Emirates is waiting for 240 planes.
- Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE: DAL) is willing to wait until 2026 and even 2027 for its first 737 MAX 10 airplane, which they ordered 100 of and were expected to be delivered over four years starting in 2025.
As of the end of September, Boeing had a backlog of 6,197 airplanes, costing just over half a trillion dollars. Unlike many businesses in this uncertain macroeconomic climate, Boeing certainly has no demand problem. It has more business than it can handle. The problem is execution and capacity, definitely not demand.
3. The Big Contract Deals Still Keep Rolling In
On Oct. 1, 2024, Boeing won $8.46 billion of multiple U.S. Department of Defense contracts for the Navy and Air Force. Boeing’s total U.S. defense contracts rose to $34 billion in October 2024, up 40% year-over-year, despite the machinist strikes.
On Nov. 7, 2024, Israel’s Defense Ministry announced a $5.2 billion deal to purchase at least 25 Israeli F-15 fighter jets out of Boeing’s St. Louis facilities.
4. End-of-Year Tax Loss Harvesting is Magnifying the Selling
Every year, tax loss and tax loss harvesting selling takes place from November through December. This involves selling stocks that are underperforming or down for the year to realize capital losses to offset capital gains in your portfolio. While this is commonplace with individual investors, it's the mutual funds and hedge funds that can make a dramatic impact on share prices.
With Boeing stock falling 46.2% YTD compared to the 23.2% gain in the S&P 500 index, there's no doubt funds are divesting Boeing stock. Tax loss selling magnifies the losses. However, the silver lining is that these stocks tend to rally back in January as funds re-enter their positions after the 30-day wash rule. For bullish investors, it pays to buy into the selling for a bounce in January.
5. BA Stock Is Nearing a Powerful Weekly Double-Bottom Support Level
A double bottom is a significant price level where a stock finds a floor and bounces. The bounce eventually exhausts as the stock falls back to the prior bottom to put in another bottom near or at the same level before it stages a higher rally. A double bottom that gets retested and bounces again forms a triple bottom. The wider the time frame chart, the more significant the double bottom levels become.
BA formed a double bottom around the $121 level in May and then October of 2022. While BA stick technically fell as low as $113.00 in June, it’s important to note that the candlestick body remained at or above the $121.00 level every time it fell below. After the second bottom formed sharply at $121.00, BA staged a massive rally to a peak of $267.54 by December 2023.
However, that was the highest peak and the head of a bearish head and shoulders pattern as each bounce peaked at a lower high. The right shoulder peaked at the weekly anchored VWAP at $196.95, literally on the nose, in July 2024. BA stock has accelerated its selling to continue to drive the neckline sharply lower. The weekly RSI has plunged to the oversold 30-band. Fibonacci (Fib) pullback support levels are at the $131.43, $121.00 double bottom, $93.90 and $89.00 pandemic low.
BA’s average consensus price target is $190.37, and its highest analyst price target sits at $250.00. It has 14 analyst Buy ratings, 9 Holds, and 2 Sell Ratings. The stock has a 3.06% short interest.
Bullish investors can consider using cash-secured puts to buy BA at the Fib pullback support levels or consider buying LEAPS at Fib extension levels to capture the upside without deploying the full capital of owning the stock. If the LEAPS are or become deep in the money (ITM), then selling front-month out-of-the-money calls activates a Poor Man’s Covered Call strategy to generate income.
The 1 Reason to Avoid Boeing Stock: Trump Tariffs Could Cripple Boeing’s Margins and Ignite a Trade War
Boeing imports nearly 30% of the parts for its airplanes from international suppliers, which adds up to a lot of parts. Boeing 787, for example, has 2.3 million parts. Boeing even has a factory in China that finalizes painting and interior work before planes are delivered to Chinese airline customers.
During his previous term, President Trump imposed tariffs on various imports, including a 25% tariff on steel and a 10% tariff on aluminum from multiple countries, including the European Union. These measures increased production costs for U.S. manufacturers, including aerospace companies like Boeing, which rely on these materials for aircraft construction.
During his 2024 re-election campaign, Trump proposed a blanket 10% to 20% tariff on all imports and a 60% to 100% tariff on products imported from China. The actual actions are a wait-and-see situation.
The imposition of tariffs led to retaliatory actions from affected countries, resulting in reduced demand for U.S. exports. For instance, Boeing experienced a decline in aircraft deliveries to China, a significant market for the company, following the previous escalation of trade tensions. In 2018, 24% of Boeing's plane deliveries were to China, but from 2019 until December 2023, the company did not make any deliveries to the country.
Analysts have expressed concerns that a renewed trade war with China could be a punishing setback for Boeing, as the company has been eager to resume sales in one of the most lucrative airliner markets in the world.
The reintroduction of tariffs could lead to increased production costs for Boeing due to higher prices for imported materials and potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries. These factors could adversely affect Boeing's competitiveness in the global aerospace market and its financial performance.
