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USD/KRW forms a triangle as Korea’s exports and imports diverge

By: Invezz
Myeong dong Market in Seoul South Korea

The USD/KRW exchange rate moved sideways on Friday after the latest South Korean trade numbers. The pair was trading at 1,335, where it has been stuck at in the past few days. This price is about 1.1% below its highest level this year.

South Korea’s exports are soaring

Economic data from South Korea revealed that the country’s exports continued soaring in February as demand rose. 

Exports rose by 4.8% in February, higher than the median estimate of 1.9%. That increase was nonetheless lower than the previous month’s 18%. Exports have risen in the past six straight months.

South Korea is benefiting from the rising demand for some of its biggest products. For example, it is the second-biggest exporter of semiconductors after Taiwan. Recently, there has been strong demand for these chips as investments in artificial intelligence risen.

South Korea is also benefiting from the growth of the automotive industry. Hyundai, the fourth-biggest company in the country, has become one of the top sellers of vehicles in the world. It sold over 4.2 million vehicles in 2023, a 6.9% increase from the previous year.

On the other hand, imports have been in the red for a long time. The most recent data showed that imports dropped by 13.1% in February after falling by 7.9% in the previous month. They have tumbled in the past 17 months straight. 

As a result, the total trade surplus has jumped to over $4.3 billion from the previous month’s $0.3 billion. 

Additional data showed that the manufacturing and services PMIs continued rising. The most recent report showed that the manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2 in January from 49.9 in December. It was the first time it moved to the expansion zone since June 2022.

USD/KRW technical analysisUSD/KRW

USD/KRW chart by TradingView

The four-hour chart shows that the USD to KRW pair remained in a tight range this week. It has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern and remained slightly above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved slightly above the neutral point. Therefore, the outlook for the pair is bullish but this will be confirmed if it moves above the upper side of the symmetrical triangle pattern. 

If this happens, the next price to watch will be at 1,350, its highest point in January. A break below the support at 1,330 will invalidate the bullish view.

The post USD/KRW forms a triangle as Korea's exports and imports diverge appeared first on Invezz

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