Former President Donald Trump is still, by far, the leader in the Republican Party’s presidential nomination race, according to the latest Fox News national survey.
Last month, Trump had the support of 53% of GOP primary voters. Now, he’s at 56%. And his closest competitor, Ron DeSantis, trails at 22%.
On June 13, Trump pleaded not guilty to 37 federal charges that he illegally kept classified documents after leaving the White House, making him the first president to face federal indictment.
Trump’s lead over DeSantis has expanded from 15 percentage points in February to 34 points today.
The rest of the Republican field lingers in low single digits: Vivek Ramaswamy at 5%; Mike Pence and Tim Scott at 4% each; Nikki Haley at 3%; and Chris Christie, Larry Elder and Asa Hutchinson at 1% apiece.
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Three other Republicans threw their hat in the ring this month. North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum formally announced his candidacy on June 7, while Miami Mayor Francis Suarez made his candidacy official on June 15 and former Texas Rep. Will Hurd on June 22. They each get less than 1% support.
Another example of Trump’s strength is only 13% of GOP primary voters say they would never vote for him, narrowly giving him the best standing among top Republican candidates. That’s down from 18% in October 2015, the last time the question was asked, and a total reversal from the early days of the 2016 primaries, when 59% said they would never vote for him (June 2015).
Pence has the undesirable lead on this measure, with one-third saying they’d never support him.
For GOP primary voters, winning in 2024 is the priority: 70% feel it’s extremely important to support a candidate who can defeat President Biden, while 55% say the same about sharing a candidate’s views on issues.
Either way, candidate preference is the same. Those saying electability is extremely important back Trump (57%) over DeSantis (24%), as do those prioritizing issues: Trump (63%) over DeSantis (24%).
What will Trump supporters do if he fails to win the nomination? Most say they’ll vote for whoever the GOP nominee is (80%), with only 6% saying they wouldn’t vote at all.
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Republican primary voters have mixed views over what Trump’s legal issues could mean for the general election, although more think they will hurt (30%) than help (25%), with another 43% saying they won’t make a difference.
Democrats are four times as likely to think his legal issues will hurt and independents are three times as likely to say the same.
Overall, while significantly more voters think Trump (56%) did something illegal in handling classified documents than say the same of Biden (37%), a majority (55%) also believes the treatment of Trump by the Justice Department is motivated by partisan politics.
Biden continues to lead by a wide margin among Democratic primary voters. He receives 64% support, up from 62% in May. Robert Kennedy, Jr. gets 17% and Marianne Williamson 10%. Biden also gets a low never-vote-for number (10%). More than twice as many feel that way about Kennedy (26%).
"Both Biden and Trump have about 60% support within their parties," says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. "You have to go back to the 2000 election to see two front-runners this far ahead at this stage."
In March 1999, George W. Bush led Elizabeth Dole by 52%-18%, and Al Gore led Bill Bradley by 56%-14%.
Equal numbers of voters (39%) say they plan to participate in the Democratic and the Republican primary/caucus in their state.
Scholar and activist Cornel West announced his third-party presidential bid on June 5. Nearly one voter in five (17%) would be open to voting for West, including 12% of GOP primary voters, 21% of Democratic primary voters and 32% of Black voters.
"West could be a significant disruptor in the race," says Anderson. "It’s feasible he could win just a few percent in a swing state or two and tip the electoral college and presidency, most likely to the Republican."
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Conducted June 23-26, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with 1,005 registered voters nationwide who were randomly selected from a voter file and spoke with live interviewers on both landlines and cellphones. The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points for all registered voters and plus or minus 5 points for Democratic and Republican primary voters.
Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
