3 Reasons REYN is Risky and 1 Stock to Buy Instead

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REYN Cover Image

Reynolds trades at $26.52 and has moved in lockstep with the market. Its shares have returned 14.9% over the last six months while the S&P 500 has gained 11%.

Is now the time to buy Reynolds, or should you be careful about including it in your portfolio? Dive into our full research report to see our analyst team’s opinion, it’s free.

Why Do We Think Reynolds Will Underperform?

We’re passing on Reynolds for now. Here are three reasons why REYN doesn’t excite us, plus one stock we’d rather own.

1. Sales Volumes Stall, Demand Waning

Revenue growth can be broken down into changes in price and volume (the number of units sold). While both are important, volume is the lifeblood of a successful staples business as there’s a ceiling to what consumers will pay for everyday goods; they can always trade down to non-branded products if the branded versions are too expensive.

Reynolds’s quarterly sales volumes have, on average, stayed about the same over the last two years. This stability is normal because the quantity demanded for consumer staples products typically doesn’t see much volatility. Reynolds Year-On-Year Volume Growth

2. Projected Revenue Growth Shows Limited Upside

Forecasted revenues by Wall Street analysts signal a company’s potential. Predictions may not always be accurate, but accelerating growth typically boosts valuation multiples and stock prices while slowing growth does the opposite.

Over the next 12 months, sell-side analysts expect Reynolds’s revenue to stall. Although this projection implies its newer products will fuel better top-line performance, it is still below average for the sector.

3. Low Gross Margin Reveals Weak Structural Profitability

All else equal, we prefer higher gross margins because they usually indicate that a company sells more differentiated products, has a stronger brand, and commands pricing power.

Reynolds has bad unit economics for a consumer staples company, giving it less room to reinvest and develop new products. As you can see below, it averaged a 25.2% gross margin over the last two years. Said differently, for every $100 in revenue, a chunky $74.76 went towards paying for raw materials, production of goods, transportation, and distribution.

Reynolds Trailing 12-Month Gross Margin

Final Judgment

Reynolds doesn’t pass our quality test. That said, the stock currently trades at 16.2× forward P/E (or $26.52 per share). This valuation tells us a lot of optimism is priced in - we think there are better stocks to buy right now. We’d recommend looking at one of our all-time favorite software stocks.

Stocks We Like More Than Reynolds

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