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3 Inflated Stocks We’re Skeptical Of

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LOCO Cover Image

The stocks featured in this article have all approached their 52-week highs. When these price levels hit, it typically signals strong business execution, positive market sentiment, or significant industry tailwinds.

However, not all companies with momentum are long-term winners, and many investors have lost money by following short-term trends. Keeping that in mind, here are three overhyped stocks that may correct and some you should consider instead.

El Pollo Loco (LOCO)

One-Month Return: +17.6%

With a name that translates into ‘The Crazy Chicken’, El Pollo Loco (NASDAQ: LOCO) is a fast food chain known for its citrus-marinated, fire-grilled chicken recipe that hails from the coastal town of Sinaloa, Mexico.

Why Is LOCO Risky?

  1. Poor same-store sales performance over the past two years indicates it’s having trouble bringing new diners into its restaurants
  2. Modest revenue base of $497.1 million gives it less fixed cost leverage and fewer distribution channels than larger companies
  3. Anticipated sales growth of 2% for the next year implies demand will be shaky

At $16.30 per share, El Pollo Loco trades at 16x forward P/E. Read our free research report to see why you should think twice about including LOCO in your portfolio.

Rogers (ROG)

One-Month Return: +12.8%

With roots dating back to 1832, making it one of America's oldest continuously operating companies, Rogers (NYSE: ROG) designs and manufactures specialized engineered materials and components used in electric vehicles, telecommunications, renewable energy, and other high-performance applications.

Why Do We Think ROG Will Underperform?

  1. Flat sales over the last five years suggest it must find different ways to grow during this cycle
  2. Expenses have increased as a percentage of revenue over the last five years as its adjusted operating margin fell by 4.7 percentage points
  3. Earnings per share have contracted by 13.9% annually over the last five years, a headwind for returns as stock prices often echo long-term EPS performance

Rogers’s stock price of $162.43 implies a valuation ratio of 41.2x forward P/E. Check out our free in-depth research report to learn more about why ROG doesn’t pass our bar.

KeyCorp (KEY)

One-Month Return: +6.2%

Tracing its roots back to 1849 during the California Gold Rush era, KeyCorp (NYSE: KEY) operates KeyBank, a full-service regional bank providing retail and commercial banking, wealth management, and investment services across 15 states.

Why Are We Hesitant About KEY?

  1. 3.4% annual net interest income growth over the last five years was slower than its banking peers
  2. Weak unit economics are reflected in its net interest margin of 2.6%, one of the worst among bank companies
  3. Incremental sales over the last five years were much less profitable as its earnings per share fell by 1.5% annually while its revenue grew

KeyCorp is trading at $23.12 per share, or 1.4x forward P/B. If you’re considering KEY for your portfolio, see our FREE research report to learn more.

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