Over the past six months, Origin Bancorp has been a great trade, beating the S&P 500 by 20.5%. Its stock price has climbed to $49.55, representing a healthy 26.9% increase. This performance may have investors wondering how to approach the situation.
Is there a buying opportunity in Origin Bancorp, or does it present a risk to your portfolio? Dive into our full research report to see our analyst team’s opinion, it’s free.
Why Is Origin Bancorp Not Exciting?
We’re glad investors have benefited from the price increase, but we don’t have much confidence in Origin Bancorp. Here are three reasons you should be careful with OBK, plus one stock we’d rather own.
1. Long-Term Revenue Growth Disappoints
Net interest income and fee-based revenue are the two pillars supporting bank earnings. The former captures profit from the gap between lending rates and deposit costs, while the latter encompasses charges for banking services, credit products, wealth management, and trading activities.
Unfortunately, Origin Bancorp’s 8.2% annualized revenue growth over the last five years was mediocre. This was below our standard for the banking sector.
2. EPS Barely Growing
We track the long-term change in earnings per share (EPS) because it highlights whether a company’s growth is profitable.
Origin Bancorp’s unimpressive 6.8% annual EPS growth over the last five years aligns with its revenue performance. This tells us it maintained its per-share profitability as it expanded.
3. Projected TBVPS Growth Is Slim
Tangible book value per share (TBVPS) growth is driven by a bank’s ability to earn more than its cost of capital through lending activities while maintaining a strong balance sheet.
Over the next 12 months, Consensus estimates call for Origin Bancorp’s TBVPS to grow by 8.1% to $38.51, paltry growth rate.
Final Judgment
Origin Bancorp isn’t a terrible business, but it isn’t one of our picks. With its shares beating the market recently, the stock trades at 1.1× forward P/B (or $49.55 per share). While this valuation is fair, the upside isn’t great compared to the potential downside. We’re pretty confident there are superior stocks to buy right now. Let us point you toward the Amazon and PayPal of Latin America.
Stocks We Would Buy Instead of Origin Bancorp
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