What a brutal six months it’s been for Bumble. The stock has dropped 45.6% and now trades at $3.59, rattling many shareholders. This might have investors contemplating their next move.
Is now the time to buy Bumble, or should you be careful about including it in your portfolio? Get the full stock story straight from our expert analysts, it’s free.
Why Is Bumble Not Exciting?
Even though the stock has become cheaper, we're swiping left on Bumble for now. Here are three reasons there are better opportunities than BMBL and a stock we'd rather own.
1. Change in Paying Users Points to Soft Demand
As a subscription-based app, Bumble generates revenue growth by expanding both its subscriber base and the amount each subscriber spends over time.
Over the last two years, Bumble’s paying users, a key performance metric for the company, increased by 1.5% annually to 3.78 million in the latest quarter. This growth rate is one of the lowest in the consumer internet sector. If Bumble wants to accelerate growth, it likely needs to engage users more effectively with its existing offerings or innovate with new products.
2. Customer Spending Decreases, Engagement Falling?
Average revenue per buyer (ARPB) is a critical metric to track because it measures how much the average buyer spends. ARPB is also a key indicator of how valuable its buyers are (and can be over time).
Bumble’s ARPB fell over the last two years, averaging 26.5% annual declines. This isn’t great when combined with its weaker paying users performance. If Bumble tries boosting ARPB by taking a more aggressive approach to monetization, it’s unclear whether buyer growth would be sustainable.
3. Revenue Projections Show Stormy Skies Ahead
Forecasted revenues by Wall Street analysts signal a company’s potential. Predictions may not always be accurate, but accelerating growth typically boosts valuation multiples and stock prices while slowing growth does the opposite.
Over the next 12 months, sell-side analysts expect Bumble’s revenue to drop by 11.1%, a decrease from This projection doesn't excite us and suggests its products and services will face some demand challenges.
Final Judgment
Bumble isn’t a terrible business, but it doesn’t pass our bar. Following the recent decline, the stock trades at 3× forward EV/EBITDA (or $3.59 per share). While this valuation is reasonable, we don’t really see a big opportunity at the moment. We're pretty confident there are more exciting stocks to buy at the moment. We’d recommend looking at one of our top software and edge computing picks.
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