What happened?

A number of stocks jumped in the afternoon session after Crude oil prices plunged more than 7% on hopes of Middle East diplomatic progress, easing the inflation pressure that had been holding long-term yields up. In market coverage carried by CNBC, financials advanced more than 1% during morning trade as capital rotated toward cyclical groups. Consumer discretionary led, up 3%. Asset managers, brokers, payments companies, and specialty lenders were higher with that move. Crude prices retreated as Brent fell 7.7% to $104.66 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate dropped 7.3% to $96.50 after Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the administration would prefer a peaceful resolution with Iran, CNBC reported.

Bloomberg said yields on 10- to 30-year Treasuries fell four to six basis points, to the lowest since September, as cheaper oil eased concern about further Federal Reserve rate hikes. The Institute for Supply Management reported its factory gauge rose to 55.5 in October from 54.5 in September, above the 54.5 consensus from economists surveyed by Reuters, so the activity backdrop firmed even as the inflation scare cooled. Fee businesses such as Federated Hermes, Hamilton Lane, Morningstar, Piper Sandler, and Houlihan Lokey take their revenue from market levels and from clients willing to transact. Payments and consumer lenders such as Shift4, EVERTEC, FirstCash, and PROG take theirs from spending and credit that hold up when the consumer is less squeezed. A lower long yield also supports the valuation of those fee streams. When inflation pressure eases and factory demand is still expanding, financials capture both a better activity tape and a lower discount rate. That dynamic accelerates capital rotation out of defensives and into cyclical financials whose fees and volumes improve as yields fall.

The stock market overreacts to news, and big price drops can present good opportunities to buy high-quality stocks.

Among others, the following stocks were impacted:

• Specialty finance company PROG (NYSE: PRG) jumped 7.7%. Is now the time to buy PROG? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free.
• Financial exchanges & data company Morningstar (NASDAQ: MORN) jumped 5.7%. Is now the time to buy Morningstar? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free.
• Diversified financial services company Paymentus (NYSE: PAY) jumped 6.5%. Is now the time to buy Paymentus? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free.

Zooming in on PROG (PRG)

PROG’s shares are quite volatile and have had 18 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.

The previous big move we wrote about was 4 days ago when the stock gained 7.2% on the news that the company reported third-quarter revenue and gross merchandise volume growth and said it intends to repurchase $100 million of stock through an accelerated share repurchase. According to a company press release, PROG Holdings reported continuing-operations revenue of $725.8 million, up 25.6%, and net earnings from continuing operations of $37.5 million. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share rose 21.8% to $1.06 from 87 cents. Adjusted EBITDA rose 21.8% to $80.0 million. Consolidated gross merchandise volume rose 58.9% to $912.0 million, and net leverage ended the quarter at 1.5 times. The company repurchased $36.7 million of stock in the quarter at an average price of $41.47. It intends to enter a $100 million accelerated share repurchase in the fourth quarter, with completion expected in the first quarter of 2027. The board added $237.3 million to the repurchase authorization, bringing the amount available to $500 million through October 26, 2029. Citing pressure on consumers, the company reduced its 2026 outlook. It now expects non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $4.70 to $4.85, compared with a prior range of $4.75 to $5.00.

PROG is up 29.9% since the beginning of the year, but at $38.16 per share, it is still trading 19.7% below its 52-week high of $47.53 from July 2026. Despite the year-to-date gain, investors who bought $1,000 worth of PROG’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at only $926.29.

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