What Happened?
Shares of biotechnology company Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) jumped 4% in the morning session after the company announced positive preliminary data for its updated 2025-2026 COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax®.
The new formula, which targets the LP.8.1 variant, generated a strong immune response in a Phase 4 clinical trial, showing an 8-fold increase in neutralizing antibodies in high-risk individuals and adults over 65. Moderna reported that the vaccine's safety profile remains consistent with previous studies, with no new concerns identified. The positive clinical update suggests continued demand for the company's key product. Further bolstering investor confidence, UBS reiterated its 'Buy' rating and a $70 price target on the stock.
After the initial pop the shares cooled down to $24.74, up 3.6% from previous close.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Moderna’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 50 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 4 days ago when the stock dropped 7.8% as reports revealed Trump administration health officials plan to link COVID-19 vaccines to the deaths of around two dozen children.
The news, first reported by The Washington Post, sent shares of other major vaccine makers like Pfizer and BioNTech tumbling as well. According to the reports, the officials' findings are based on data from the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), a federal database that collects unfiltered and unverified reports of possible side effects from the public. The potential for a government presentation linking the vaccines to adverse outcomes has created significant investor concern.
Adding to the uncertainty, officials are also reportedly considering new restrictions on which segments of the population should be eligible for the shots. In response, Moderna issued a statement noting that regulators in over 90 countries have not identified any new or undisclosed safety concerns regarding its vaccine in children.
Moderna is down 41.1% since the beginning of the year, and at $24.74 per share, it is trading 65.6% below its 52-week high of $71.99 from September 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Moderna’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $359.38.
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