Wall Street has set ambitious price targets for the stocks in this article. While this suggests attractive upside potential, it’s important to remain skeptical because analysts face institutional pressures that can sometimes lead to overly optimistic forecasts.
Unlike the investment banks, we created StockStory to provide independent analysis that helps you determine which companies are truly worth following. That said, here are three stocks where Wall Street’s estimates seem disconnected from reality and some better opportunities to consider.
MongoDB (MDB)
Consensus Price Target: $265.99 (25.9% implied return)
Started in 2007 by the team behind Google’s ad platform, DoubleClick, MongoDB offers database-as-a-service that helps companies store large volumes of semi-structured data.
Why Do We Think Twice About MDB?
- Track record of operating margin losses stem from its decision to pursue growth instead of profits
- Poor free cash flow margin of 7.6% for the last year limits its freedom to invest in growth initiatives, execute share buybacks, or pay dividends
MongoDB is trading at $211.19 per share, or 7.2x forward price-to-sales. Dive into our free research report to see why there are better opportunities than MDB.
Upland (UPLD)
Consensus Price Target: $4.25 (108% implied return)
Founder Jack McDonald’s second software rollup, Upland Software (NASDAQ: UPLD) is a one stop shop for sales and marketing software, project management, HR, and contact center services for small and medium sized businesses.
Why Do We Think UPLD Will Underperform?
- Annual sales declines of 4.4% for the past three years show its products and services struggled to connect with the market
- Sales are expected to decline once again over the next 12 months as it continues working through a challenging demand environment
- Competitive market means the company must spend more on sales and marketing to stand out even if the return on investment is low
Upland’s stock price of $2.04 implies a valuation ratio of 0.3x forward price-to-sales. Check out our free in-depth research report to learn more about why UPLD doesn’t pass our bar.
Harley-Davidson (HOG)
Consensus Price Target: $28.92 (13.3% implied return)
Founded in 1903, Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) is an American motorcycle manufacturer known for its heavyweight motorcycles designed for cruising on highways.
Why Do We Steer Clear of HOG?
- Number of motorcycles sold has disappointed over the past two years, indicating weak demand for its offerings
- Shrinking returns on capital suggest that increasing competition is eating into the company’s profitability
- 13× net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio shows it’s overleveraged and increases the probability of shareholder dilution if things turn unexpectedly
At $25.53 per share, Harley-Davidson trades at 7.7x forward P/E. To fully understand why you should be careful with HOG, check out our full research report (it’s free).
High-Quality Stocks for All Market Conditions
Market indices reached historic highs following Donald Trump’s presidential victory in November 2024, but the outlook for 2025 is clouded by new trade policies that could impact business confidence and growth.
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