As the midstream energy sector enters a transformative new era defined by artificial intelligence and a national "energy dominance" mandate, all eyes are on Energy Transfer (NYSE: ET) as it prepares to unveil its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results on Tuesday, February 17, 2026. The Dallas-based pipeline giant finds itself at a critical crossroads, balancing the integration of multi-billion dollar acquisitions with a bold strategic pivot toward the domestic power needs of the Silicon Valley hyperscalers.

With the market bracing for a massive revenue jump fueled by recent consolidation, the upcoming report will offer the first comprehensive look at how the "gas-to-power" boom is reshaping the bottom line for one of North America's largest infrastructure networks. Analysts are particularly focused on management's ability to capitalize on a regulatory environment that has shifted dramatically toward expedited permitting and "energy-first" policies over the past twelve months.

A Massive Footprint Meets Record-Breaking Volumes

The February 17 report is expected to showcase the sheer scale of Energy Transfer’s operational engine. Consensus estimates for the fourth quarter of 2025 place earnings per share (EPS) between $0.34 and $0.36, representing a robust 17% year-over-year increase. More striking is the revenue projection, which is pegged at approximately $23.5 billion—a staggering 20.5% surge compared to the same period in 2024. This growth is largely the result of the successful integration of WTG Midstream and the Sunoco/NuStar merger, which have solidified ET’s dominance in the Permian and Midland Basins.

The journey to this earnings milestone has been marked by a relentless pursuit of volume. Throughout 2025, Energy Transfer reported partnership records across nearly every segment, with midstream gathering volumes up 10% and crude oil transportation rising 9%. However, the headline-grabbing move came in December 2025, when the company officially suspended its flagship Lake Charles LNG export project. Citing a need to reallocate capital to domestic pipeline expansions with "superior risk/return profiles," the decision signaled a definitive shift in strategy: ET is betting that the most lucrative future for natural gas lies not in shipping it overseas, but in piping it directly to the 1.2-gigawatt data centers fueling the AI arms race.

Key stakeholders, including institutional investors who have pushed for higher capital discipline, initially reacted with cautious optimism to the Lake Charles suspension. The move freed up billions for projects like the newly renamed Hugh Brinson Pipeline (formerly the Warrior Pipeline), a 1.5 Bcf/d Permian-to-Texas project currently under construction and slated for a late 2026 start. By prioritizing "behind-the-meter" connections to hyperscalers, Energy Transfer is positioning its 130,000-mile network as the essential backbone for the next generation of American computing power.

Sorting the Winners and Losers in the Midstream Super-Cycle

Energy Transfer’s pivot is sending ripples through the midstream landscape, creating a distinct set of winners and losers among its peers. Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI) emerges as a primary rival in the race for data center supremacy. While ET boasts a larger overall footprint, Kinder Morgan has been more aggressive in framing AI power demand as its "single largest growth driver," guiding for $8.7 billion in adjusted EBITDA for 2026. KMI’s Trident Pipeline and South System Expansion are direct competitors to ET’s Texas-based gas projects, setting up a "battle of the pipes" for lucrative long-term contracts with tech giants like Microsoft and Oracle.

Conversely, Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD) has chosen a different path, focusing on its NGL and ethane export dominance. EPD is likely to "win" in the global petrochemical space as its Neches River Ethane Terminal expansion ramps up in early 2026. However, EPD may face stiffer competition for capital as investors increasingly favor companies with direct exposure to the AI-driven domestic gas boom. Meanwhile, Targa Resources (NYSE: TRGP) continues to be the "growth-at-any-price" leader, leveraging its integrated wellhead-to-water strategy to capture rising Permian production. TRGP’s Speedway NGL Pipeline and Train 11 fractionator remain key catalysts for its double-digit growth targets.

The "losers" in this environment may be the smaller, less integrated regional players who lack the capital to pivot toward data center infrastructure. The high entry cost for "behind-the-meter" power solutions favors giants like ET and KMI, potentially sparking another wave of midstream consolidation in late 2026 as smaller firms look to be acquired by the "Big Three" infrastructure platforms.

The Dawn of "Energy Dominance" and Regulatory Streamlining

The broader significance of ET’s upcoming report cannot be overstated, as it serves as a litmus test for the new "Energy Dominance" policy framework that took hold in 2025. The establishment of the National Energy Dominance Council has revolutionized the permitting process, centralizing federal authority to provide "speed and certainty" for energy infrastructure. This shift, bolstered by the "PERMIT Act" and the modernization of NEPA (National Environmental Policy Act) rules, has effectively halved the time required for environmental reviews.

For Energy Transfer, these policy changes are a massive tailwind. The company is now able to advance projects like the Hugh Brinson Pipeline with minimal regulatory friction, focusing on "direct effects" rather than downstream emissions. This regulatory tailwind is a sharp departure from the historical precedent of decade-long legal battles that plagued projects like the Dakota Access Pipeline. The market is now pricing in a "permanently lower" regulatory risk profile for midstream assets, which has contributed to ET’s total return of over 13% since the start of 2025.

Furthermore, the AI data center crisis has elevated natural gas to a matter of national security. As hyperscalers demand 24/7 firm power that renewables currently cannot provide at scale, the midstream sector is increasingly being viewed as a "utility-plus" play. Energy Transfer’s report is expected to detail requests for connections to over 40 prospective data centers across 10 states, a pipeline of demand that was virtually non-existent just three years ago.

Looking Ahead: The 2026 Roadmap and Strategic Pivots

Looking past the February 17 numbers, the short-term focus for Energy Transfer will be its EBITDA guidance for 2026. Early indications suggest management will target a range of $17.3 billion to $17.7 billion, a significant step up from 2025’s $16.5 billion cap. The primary challenge will be the execution of its "Gas-to-Power" strategy. Investors are looking for concrete "behind-the-meter" deal announcements—agreements where ET provides natural gas directly to private power plants owned by data center operators, bypassing the traditional utility grid.

In the long term, Energy Transfer may need to pivot its capital allocation even further. If the "energy dominance" mandate continues to prioritize domestic grid reliability, the company might explore acquiring smaller power generation assets or entering the carbon capture and storage (CCS) market to "decarbonize" the gas it provides to tech firms. The "Mustang Draw" processing plants in the Midland Basin, scheduled for completion throughout 2026, will be a critical bellwether for the company’s ability to handle the increasing gas-to-oil ratios in the Permian.

Navigating the New Energy Frontier

Energy Transfer’s February 17 earnings report represents more than just a quarterly financial update; it is a progress report on the re-industrialization of the American energy landscape. The key takeaways for investors will be the successful integration of its massive 2024-2025 acquisitions and the concrete numbers behind its data center outreach. If ET can prove that its shift away from Lake Charles LNG into domestic gas-to-power is yielding higher margins, it could trigger a significant re-rating of the stock’s valuation.

The market moving forward will likely reward "size and connectivity." As the U.S. leans into its role as a global energy superpower while simultaneously feeding the insatiable hunger of the AI revolution, Energy Transfer sits at the center of both trends. Investors should keep a close watch on the progress of the Hugh Brinson Pipeline and any updates on the "CloudBurst" data center agreement in Central Texas. In the coming months, the ability to turn "miles of pipe" into "megawatts of power" will be the defining metric for success in the midstream sector.

This content is intended for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.