Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) stock is down an additional 5.8% the day after the company announced that Pat Gelsinger was stepping down as chief executive officer (CEO) effective immediately. A pair of interim CEOs will run Intel as the board undertakes an executive search.
After initially surging after the announcement, the stock has fallen 7.6% as of midday trading on December 3. INTC stock is a better trade than an investment at the moment, but is there a path in which Intel could become a value on the dip?
The “What Now?” Is More Important Than the Why
In the immediate aftermath of the announcement that Gelsinger was stepping down, there was significant commentary as to why he was leaving.
The conventional wisdom is that there was a split between Gelsinger and the Intel board of directors. That seems likely because, despite Gelsinger’s enthusiasm and energy, Intel's turnaround has been slow to arrive. A key reason for that is the company’s strategy to compete in both the foundry and the fab arenas.
However, the company has been lagging in both. And that’s reflected in the INTC stock price, which is down sharply compared to other technology stocks.
The board’s decision to ask for and accept Gelsinger’s resignation indicates that the company is preparing to chart a more defined course for Intel.
That direction was all but confirmed by the newly installed interim executive board chair, Frank Yeary, who said, “As a board, we know first and foremost that we must put our product group at the center of all we do.”
The Foundry Business Is Likely to Be Sold
A core problem facing Intel stems from Gelsinger’s desire to take Intel back to its foundry roots while, at the same time, the company has fallen behind in the chipmaking space. Intel was a dominant player in the central processing unit (CPU) market, which is essential to the PC world. However, the company had nothing to offer customers as the market pivoted to the graphic processing unit (GPU) market, which began with cloud computing and is now essential to artificial intelligence (AI) and data center applications.
It would seem that Gelsinger put many of his chips in the basket of the U.S. government who as recently as September was pushing companies such as NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) to use Intel foundries in the United States to make their chips.
That's all well and good. But also in September, Intel’s foundry failed testing by Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO), with the latter citing that Intel’s "manufacturing process is not yet viable to move to high-volume production.”
Gelsinger did announce plans to spin off Intel’s foundry business as a separate entity. But that entity would still have been part of Intel much as YouTube is part of Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL), and investors responded accordingly.
Is the Worst Over for INTC Stock?
It may be, but that doesn’t mean Intel is anything more than a trade right now. There is optimism around the company's Arc Battlemage desktop GPU series, which may allow it to capture some market share in the AI PC arena, a sector that the company has conceded to players like NVIDIA for more than a decade.
However, it’s still far too early to know what Intel’s new strategy will look like. The consensus price target for INTC stock is around $30 per share, but the only analyst to weigh in since the Gelsinger announcement is Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), which reiterated its Underperform rating and $21 price target.
In any event, this looks like a multi-year turnaround and any investors will need to keep that in mind. That aside, as a trade there could be some opportunities.
Buyers have jumped in as INTC stock got to around the $22 level. That’s a level of support to watch as the stock has hit an oversold level based on its relative strength indicator (RSI). If it falls through that, investors may be looking at the stock to test a level at around $18.50, which is where it bottomed out in September. On the top end, traders could look at its November high at around $26.30 if it can push past a resistance level of around $24.30, which is the top of its 200-day moving average.
