Every quarter, retail investors get the chance to look inside the house of money as the regulatory 13F filings come out for some of Wall Street’s biggest players. Inside these reports, investors can see who has been buying and selling certain stocks, not necessarily to piggyback on these ideas but to potentially connect the dots moving forward for their own market views.
The data as of November 2024 shows that mega investors like Bill Ackman, Howard Marks, and Michael Burry decided to boost their holdings in certain areas of the market during the most recent quarter. These areas may not be the most popular today, but that is part of what comes with taking on a value investment. Hunters need to be willing to take the contrarian route.
By buying a beaten-down consumer discretionary stock like Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE), Bill Ackman believes today’s price is nothing short of a good deal. The same can also be said of Burry buying even more stock in Alibaba Group (NYSE: BABA), a rare Chinese bet, despite the bearish price action that Howard Marks accompanied in his PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: PDD) position. Then, an even less common move made by the hedge fund industry into cryptocurrency is to be considered.
What Ackman Hopes to See With His Nike Stock Investment
After recent filings, investors will notice that Bill Ackman has built himself a position of up to 16.2 million shares of Nike stock, a move that not many would have the courage to make considering the stock trades at a dismal 63% of its 52-week high.
It isn’t common to see big buyers when a stock demonstrates such bearish price action, but that’s where most value investors earn their paycheck. This time around, plenty of tailwinds push the envelope for Nike stock to potentially stage a comeback.
One of them is the broader economic landscape, which has investors jumping back and forth between a potential recession or inflation scenario based on the price action between many asset classes. Because most of the market’s attention is now on technology, stocks like Nike fly under the radar today.
Whether there is an inflation or recession scenario, Nike’s scale at $115 billion market capitalization, along with its international exposure and reach, helps the brand cushion whatever impact they may have on the industry. It would seem some on Wall Street also share in Ackman’s enthusiasm for Nike stock.
Analysts at Guggenheim kept their Buy ratings on Nike stock as of October 2024 and have not changed them since. As a vote of confidence already, investors can add the valuation of $110 a share placed on Nike stock for further validation into this potential investment, which calls for a net upside of as much as 42% from where the stock trades today.
Why Michael Burry and Howard Marks Are Betting on China Today
Compared to the United States, China's technology sector offers one of the widest divergences in history today, an opening that these two value investors are willing to uncover for a profit. Michael Burry has added once more to his largest position, Alibaba stock, and it seems he's not alone in this view.
As of November 2024, Sanders Capital decided to boost its stakes in the Chinese giant by 0.3%. While this new allocation may not seem like much percentage-wise, it brought its net investment to a high of $1.9 billion, a direct vote of confidence in Alibaba's future.
With analysts at Barclays assigning a $130 price target, Burry and other investors now face up to 53% upside from where the stock trades today. This is an undeniably attractive deal for those willing to invest in overseas markets. Another willing investor is Howard Marks, who chose PDD as his Chinese commerce pick.
That stock now trades at a low 60% of its 52-week high, making it a similar discount—price action-wise—to where Ackman decided to buy Nike stock. More than that, the consensus price target from Wall Street analysts now sits at $173.4 a share, calling for a 74.6% upside from where it trades today.
These picks cover discounts, double-digit upside, and a way to diversify away from the two potential themes that might take over the United States economy: Burry and Marks.
Hedge Funds Are Turning to Bitcoin ETFs
After reiterating his view on inflation during a recent CNBC interview, Paul Tudor Jones has decided to hedge this possibility by buying heavily into Bitcoin through his hedge fund. Jones bought up to $230 million worth of Bitcoin through spot positions and the iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ: IBIT).
That ETF didn’t just attract Jones and his hedge fund; other institutional players on Wall Street joined the party as well. As of the second quarter of 2024, Goldman Sachs decided to buy up to $238 million into the same Bitcoin ETF, joining Jones’ timing on this new asset class.
Then, Capula Management, a London-based hedge fund, recently revealed its massive $400 million position in this Bitcoin ETF. It makes sense that this would be the case since the markets are risk-on and face the possibility of inflation themes coming back into the scene.
