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New York, NY – April 28, 2026 – Wall Street is starting to price who can actually deliver rare earth supply inside the United States, not just extract it from the ground, initiating coverage on REalloys as it moves to expand the first commercial-scale rare earths metallization facility in North America. Companies mentioned in today’s commentary includes: Realloys Inc. (ALOY), Compass Minerals International, Inc. (NYSE: CMP), USA Rare Earth, Inc. (NASDAQ: USAR), Energy Fuels Inc. (NYSE American: UUUU), Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. (OTCQX: LYSDY), Critical Metals Corp. (NASDAQ: CRML).
Most rare earth material still runs through China before it reaches the end user, but in fewer than nine months, these China-origin materials will be fully banned from use in U.S. defense systems. That shrinks the supply base overnight.
Very few companies are even trying to build a supply chain that stays inside North America from start to finish. A new Buy rating on REalloys with a $35 price target recognizes that capability is already in place.
Clear Street initiated coverage on REalloys (ALOY) with a Buy rating and a $35 price target. The call is straightforward: the upside is tied to execution. If the company delivers on its buildout, the current valuation does not reflect what that system could look like once it is running at scale.
What they are valuing is not exposure to rare earth prices. It is ownership of the chain inside North America. REalloys is not mining. It’s doing something more critical and complicated: It’s taking feedstock, processing it into metals and alloys, and moving toward magnet production, all inside one system that does not rely on China.
Clear Street calls it a “mine-to-magnet” buildout, with verified North American sourcing and full control over the supply chain.
China still controls roughly 80-85% of the global magnet supply chain, and the United States imports more than 85% of all the rare earth material it uses. Clear Street points out that the U.S. is decades behind on processing and manufacturing capacity, not just mining. Starting in January 2027, Chinese-origin NdFeB magnets cannot be used in U.S. defense systems. That forces a shift toward material that can be sourced, processed, and delivered inside North America, with full traceability. REalloys is already building that.
Buildout Timeline: From Metals to Magnets
Phase one is expected to be operational in 2027. REalloys moves into domestic production of high-purity rare earth metals and alloys, using a mix of recycled magnets and mined feedstock. This is the point where material is produced inside the United States and can move through a traceable supply chain. The Phase one buildout needs an additional $50 million in cash which it has already dedicated.
Phase one heavy rare earth metallization runs through the Euclid, Ohio facility, where REalloys already performs metallothermic reduction to convert rare earth oxides into metal and alloy form. Feedstock oxides are expected to be produced from both recycled magnets and upstream supply agreements, with the material moving through reduction and alloying in-house before leaving as finished product.
Phase two is expected to extend that system. By 2029, the plan is to add magnet manufacturing in Ohio. That brings the operation from processed material into finished components, using feedstock from Hoidas Lake and other North American sources.
Clear Street calls the 2027 China-origin rare earths ban a “key catalyst” for ALOY right now, and sees Phase 2 magnet production as the point where the economics really change.
Instead of selling metal and alloy into someone else’s system, REalloys would be producing NdFeB magnets itself, keeping that margin inside the company. The Ohio location keeps that production tied directly to the existing metallization work, with feedstock moving from oxide to metal to finished magnet without leaving the country. Hoidas Lake adds a dedicated source of material, with additional supply expected from other North American partners to support volume as production ramps.
“This is about building a supply chain the United States actually controls, from input to finished product, without relying on foreign processing,” Joe Kasper, former Chief of Staff to the U.S. Secretary of Defense and now Chairman of REalloys’ advisory board, told Oilprice.com this week. “If the U.S. can’t process and manufacture these materials domestically, then it does not have a rare earths supply chain at all.”
Wall Street Bets on Big Defense Names Amid Global Uncertainty
Kasper, brought on board earlier this month, isn’t the only American defense establishment name in the REalloys line-up. He joins General Jack Keane, former Vice Chief of Staff of the U.S. Army, and Stephen duMont, president of GM Defense.
These are the people who’ve run defense procurement from the inside, the ones who know how to get qualified, how to get funded, and how to end up supplying materials into weapons systems.
The Iran conflict is burning through billions of dollars in precision-guided munitions. These systems run on rare earth materials, and they’re getting used up faster than they can be replaced.
At the same time, supply is tightening. Reuters has pointed to reduced availability of key materials, with some defense-linked inventories down to a matter of months if disruptions continue.
“You can’t fight a 21st-century war with twentieth-century supply chains,” said Lipi Sternheim, CEO of REalloys. “Modern weapons rely on materials that are difficult to source, difficult to process, and difficult to replace once inventories begin to tighten.”
Outside China, buyers are already paying up. Europe is clearing material at two to three times the levels quoted inside China. That’s how this market works. Supply is tight, buyers step in when they have to, and price follows.
And it’s not just defense.
Companies like General Electric (GE) are ramping aerospace production, building jet engines and avionics that rely on the same materials. So now you have defense demand and commercial demand pulling from the same pool at the same time.
Ahead of 2027, the deals are stacking up
Things are moving quickly with less than a year before the January 1, 2027 cutoff. REalloys has started locking in upstream supply and tightening control over where its material comes from and how it moves through the system.
In early April, the company signed a memorandum of understanding with U.S. Critical Materials to secure up to 10% of production from the Sheep Creek deposit in Montana. The asset carries high concentrations of dysprosium and terbium, the heavy rare earths used in high-performance magnets across missile systems, radar, and fighter aircraft.
The structure of the agreement points to where this is going. REalloys is not just sourcing material. It is aligning that supply directly with its midstream and downstream system, with a stated focus on keeping the entire chain inside North America and removing Chinese involvement at every stage.
More importantly, this is happening on a compressed timeline. Both companies are moving to advance test work on heavy rare earth processing and are targeting a long-term offtake agreement within a year, putting real milestones in place ahead of the 2027 deadline.
Other companies getting attention:
Energy Fuels Inc. (NYSE American: UUUU) has transformed its White Mesa Mill in Utah into a cornerstone asset for U.S. critical mineral processing. Beyond uranium recovery, the facility is now operating commercial-scale rare earth separation circuits, extracting value from monazite concentrates that were historically discarded as waste.
White Mesa remains uniquely licensed in the United States to manage radioactive byproducts associated with monazite processing, creating a substantial regulatory moat. By early 2026, the company is producing separated neodymium and praseodymium oxides domestically, reducing dependence on Chinese downstream capacity.
To secure feedstock, Energy Fuels has assembled heavy mineral sand assets in Madagascar and Brazil, creating vertical integration from mine to separation. This structure enables a dual revenue stream pairing uranium production with rare earth recovery, positioning the company as both an energy and strategic materials supplier.
Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. (LYSDY) remains the leading producer of separated rare earth materials outside China. The company has restructured its processing chain to mitigate regulatory risk and expand long-term throughput.
The Kalgoorlie cracking and leaching plant in Western Australia is fully operational, allowing Mt Weld concentrate to be processed domestically and radioactive residues to be managed before shipment. This shift has enhanced supply security while addressing prior Malaysian regulatory concerns.
In the United States, Lynas is progressing construction of its Seadrift, Texas heavy rare earth separation facility, supported by Department of Defense funding. The plant will produce dysprosium and terbium critical to high-temperature magnets used in EV and defense applications.
USA Rare Earth (USAR) is the first company to execute a fully vertically integrated “mine-to-magnet” strategy on U.S. soil. In early 2026, the company secured a transformative $1.6 billion funding package from the U.S. government, which included a direct equity stake from the administration. This capital is being deployed to accelerate the development of the Round Top Mountain project in Texas, the richest known deposit of heavy rare earths, gallium, and beryllium in the country, while simultaneously ramping up its 310,000 sq. ft. magnet manufacturing facility in Stillwater, Oklahoma.
The Stillwater plant is expected to reach commercial production in the first half of 2026, producing high-performance sintered neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets used in F-35 fighter jets, electric vehicle motors, and missile guidance systems. By 2029, USAR aims to produce over 10,000 metric tons of magnets annually, which would satisfy a significant portion of the domestic defense and industrial requirement. To de-risk the full-scale commercial launch of its Texas mine, the company is operating a hydrometallurgical demonstration facility in Colorado, which is using advanced solvent-extraction circuits to prove its refined processing technology at scale.
Critical Metals Corp. (CRML) is advancing a Western-focused development portfolio centered on lithium and rare earth assets in Europe and Greenland. Its Wolfsberg Lithium Project in Austria has moved through definitive feasibility and is positioned to become one of the EU’s first new hard-rock lithium producers.
Located near Central European battery manufacturing clusters, Wolfsberg benefits from logistical advantages and alignment with the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act. Underground mine design and established permitting progress have supported community and regulatory acceptance. Binding offtake arrangements, including automotive partnerships, provide commercial clarity ahead of construction.
Compass Minerals International (CMP) remains a leading provider of essential minerals, solidifying its position with consistent performance and strategic growth initiatives. Since the previously mentioned reference, the company has made significant advancements in its operations, product offerings, and sustainability efforts.
Compass Minerals has expanded its product portfolio by introducing new and innovative solutions. Notably, the company has developed a range of specialty salts for various industrial applications, including pharmaceuticals, food additives, and water treatment. These value-added products have not only strengthened the company’s revenue streams but also enhanced its competitive advantage in specialized markets.
By. Michael Kern
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