Signals of early-stage homebuying demand, including home tours, are gaining momentum as mortgage rates stabilize at a 15-month low
(NASDAQ: RDFN) — The median U.S. monthly mortgage payment was $2,587 during the four weeks ending August 18, its lowest level since February and down 0.1% from a year earlier. That’s according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.
That’s a tiny drop, but it marks the first time in four years monthly payments have posted any decline at all. Housing payments are falling because mortgage rates are falling; weekly average mortgage rates are sitting at a 15-month low of just below 6.5%, down from a peak of 7.2% in May. Home prices are still near record highs, up 3.6% year over year.
Mortgage rates have been holding steady around 6.5% since the start of August. The stabilization of rates well below their peak has inspired house hunters to hit the pavement: Some would-be buyers who had been waiting for rates to decline more have realized that's unlikely to happen anytime soon, and others are gaining confidence that rates won't suddenly pop up before they put an offer on a home. Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index—a measure of requests for tours and other buying services from Redfin agents—has risen 4% over the last week to its highest level in two months.
The uptick in home tours hasn’t yet translated to more sales. Pending home sales are down 5.3% year over year, the biggest decline in nine months (with the exception of the 4 weeks ending August 4), and mortgage-purchase applications are down 8%. But pending sales are a lagging indicator, and they may improve as home tours pick up, and Redfin agents report they’ve seen an uptick in buyer interest.
“Over the last two weeks, I’ve seen momentum build and I’ve felt clients get more excited about the prospect of buying or selling a home,” said Gregory Eubanks, a Redfin Premier agent in Los Angeles. “That stems from encouraging economic news and speculation that the Fed is going to cut interest rates in September. Some people are actively searching and listing their homes right now, and others are still hoping rates drop more significantly before making a move.”
On the supply side, new listings are up 3.4% year over year and the total number of homes for sale is up 18%. Redfin economists say we could see listings rise in the coming weeks, with the August 17 implementation of the NAR settlement inspiring some sellers to list their home, in hopes of a lower fee.
For Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.
Indicators of homebuying demand and activity
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|
Value (if applicable) |
Recent change |
Year-over-year change |
Source |
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate |
6.46% (Aug. 21) |
Near lowest level since spring 2023 |
Down from 7.48% |
Mortgage News Daily |
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate |
6.49% (week ending Aug. 15) |
Near lowest level in over a year; down from 7.22% in early May |
Down from 7.09% |
Freddie Mac |
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted) |
|
Declined 5% from a week earlier (as of week ending Aug. 16) |
Down 8% |
Mortgage Bankers Association |
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted) |
|
Up 4% from a month earlier to highest in two months (as of week ending Aug. 18) |
Down 8% (smallest decline since April) |
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents |
Touring activity |
|
Up 9% from the start of the year (as of Aug. 19) |
At this time last year, it was up 5% from the start of 2023 |
ShowingTime, a home touring technology company |
Google searches for “home for sale” |
|
Up 8% from a month earlier (as of Aug. 19) |
Down 8% |
Google Trends |
Key housing-market data
U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending August 18, 2024 Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision. |
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|
Four weeks ending August 18, 2024 |
Year-over-year change |
Notes |
Median sale price |
$390,000 |
3.6% |
Up about $1,000 from a week earlier, but about $6,000 below all-time high set during the 4 weeks ending July 7 |
Median asking price |
$397,388 |
6% |
Biggest increase since Oct. 2022 |
Median monthly mortgage payment |
$2,587 at a 6.49% mortgage rate |
-0.1% |
Lowest level since Feb.; $245 below all-time high set during the 4 weeks ending April 28 |
Pending sales |
80,894 |
-5.3% |
Biggest decline since Nov. 2023, except the 4 weeks ending Aug. 4, when there was a 5.9% decline |
New listings |
90,302 |
3.4% |
|
Active listings |
1,000,540 |
18% |
Smallest increase since April |
Months of supply |
3.6 |
+0.7 pts. |
4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions. |
Share of homes off market in two weeks |
36.5% |
Down from 42% |
|
Median days on market |
35 |
+6 days |
|
Share of homes sold above list price |
28.9% |
Down from 34% |
|
Share of homes with a price drop |
6.9% |
+1.7 pts. |
Highest level on record |
Average sale-to-list price ratio |
99.2% |
-0.5 pts. |
|
Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending August 18, 2024 Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy. |
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|
Metros with biggest year-over-year increases |
Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases |
Notes |
Median sale price |
Philadelphia (12.6%) Nassau County, NY (10.4%) Detroit (10%) Anaheim, CA (9.9%) Milwaukee (9.5%)
|
Austin, TX (-1.8%) Tampa, FL (-1.3%) San Antonio, TX (-1.1%) Fort Worth, TX (-0.7%) Phoenix (-0.1%)
|
Declined in 5 metros |
Pending sales |
San Jose, CA (9.2%) Los Angeles (7.8%) Boston (7.5%) Montgomery County, PA (5.5%) Sacramento, CA (5.2%)
|
Houston (-17.1%) Atlanta (-16%) Tampa, FL (-15.2%) West Palm Beach, FL (-14.7%) Fort Lauderdale, FL (-13%) |
Increased in 13 metros |
New listings |
San Jose, CA (17.4%) San Diego (16.4%) Montgomery County, PA (16.2%) Miami (13.4%) Baltimore, MD (12.6%) |
Atlanta (-15.1%) Newark, NJ (-5.9%) Austin, TX (-5.2%) San Antonio (-3.8%) Tampa, FL (-3.7%) |
Declined in 14 metros |
To view the full report, including charts, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-house-hunters-return-monthly-payments-decline
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We run the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can have our renovations crew fix it up to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than $1.6 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000 people.
Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and WalkScore®.
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin's press center, click here.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240822049765/en/
Contacts
Redfin Journalist Services:
Tana Kelley
press@redfin.com
