The median U.S. sale price is up 5% year over year. But there are signs that price growth could slow soon, with the average home selling for under list price, inventory rising and a high share of listings growing stale.
(NASDAQ: RDFN) — The median U.S. home-sale price hit an all-time high of $397,482 during the four weeks ending July 7, up 4.7% year over year—the biggest increase in over four months. That’s according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. This marks the ninth straight week the median sale price has reached a new record high.
Sale prices have remained stubbornly high despite elevated mortgage rates pushing down homebuying demand; pending home sales are down 3.5% year over year and mortgage-purchase applications are down 13%. That’s partly because inventory remains historically low, pushing up prices and pushing down sales. And it’s partly because final sale prices are a lagging indicator—they reflect deals that were struck between buyers and sellers a month or two earlier.
There are signs that price growth may lose momentum soon. The typical home is selling for 0.4% less than its asking price, marking the first time the typical home has sold under list price at the start of July since 2020, when the onset of the pandemic nearly ground the housing market to a halt. Additionally, just 32% of homes are selling above asking price, down from 36% a year ago and the lowest share at this time of year since 2020.
Although inventory is still historically low, it is rising on a year-over-year basis, which is another sign that price growth may lose steam in the coming months. New listings are up 7.3% year over year, and the total number of homes for sale is up 18.3%, with most homes for sale growing stale: More than 60% of homes are listed for at least a month without going under contract. More homes are hitting the market partly because mortgage rates have been sitting at double pandemic-era lows for nearly two years, and sellers are tired of waiting for rates to drop before they move on to their next home.
“Homes are sitting longer than they usually do this time of year, which has led to some—but not all—homes selling for a little bit less,” said Julie Zubiate, a Redfin Premier agent in the Bay Area. “The longer rates stay high, the pickier buyers are getting. Buyers will jump ship or try to negotiate the price down with any sort of tiny problem; sellers should take the time to prep, price and promote their homes correctly to find the right buyer. That being said, there is one segment of the market that is still moving fast, with homes going over asking price with multiple offers: Move-in ready homes with big backyards located in desirable school districts.”
For Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.
Leading indicators
Indicators of homebuying demand and activity |
||||
|
Value (if applicable) |
Recent change |
Year-over-year change |
Source |
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate |
6.99% (July 10) |
Down from 7.14% a week earlier; first time in about a month it has dropped below 7% |
Down from 7.12% |
Mortgage News Daily |
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate |
6.95% (week ending July 3) |
Up from 6.86% a week earlier; first increase after 4 straight weeks of declines |
Up from 6.81% |
Freddie Mac |
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted) |
|
Increased 1% from a week earlier (as of week ending July 5) |
Down 13% |
Mortgage Bankers Association |
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted) |
|
Up 2% from a month earlier (as of week ending July 7) |
Down 16% |
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents |
Touring activity |
|
Flat from the start of the year (as of July 7) |
At this time last year, it was up 1% from the start of 2023 |
ShowingTime, a home touring technology company |
Google searches for “home for sale” |
|
Up 17% from a month earlier (as of July 7) |
Down 14% |
Google Trends |
Key housing-market data
U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending July 7, 2024 Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision. |
|||
|
Four weeks ending July 7, 2024 |
Year-over-year change |
Notes |
Median sale price |
$397,482 |
4.7% |
All-time high; biggest increase in 4 months |
Median asking price |
$406,000 |
5.4% |
Lowest level in 3 months |
Median monthly mortgage payment |
$2,742 at a 6.95% mortgage rate |
5.3% |
$95 below all-time high set during the 4 weeks ending April 28 |
Pending sales |
83,410 |
-3.5% |
|
New listings |
93,452 |
7.3% |
|
Active listings |
970,503 |
18.3% |
Smallest increase in over 2 months |
Months of supply |
3.6 |
+0.8 pts. |
4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions |
Share of homes off market in two weeks |
41.1% |
Down from 45% |
|
Median days on market |
32 |
+4 days |
|
Share of homes sold above list price |
31.9% |
Down from 36% |
|
Share of homes with a price drop |
6.5% |
+1.8 pts. |
|
Average sale-to-list price ratio |
99.6% |
-0.4 pts. |
|
Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending July 7, 2024 Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy. |
|||
|
Metros with biggest year-over-year increases |
Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases |
Notes |
Median sale price |
West Palm Beach, FL (13.8%) Fort Lauderdale, FL (13%) Detroit (12.9%) New Brunswick, NJ (12.8%) Anaheim, CA (12.2%) |
Austin, TX (-1.9%) Dallas (-1.2%)
|
Declined in 2 metros |
Pending sales |
San Jose, CA (18.8%) San Francisco (9.4%) Boston (9.2%) Montgomery County, PA (3.8%) Columbus, OH (2.8%)
|
West Palm Beach, FL (-16.9%) Houston (-13.8%) Miami (-13.6%) Minneapolis (-12.5%) Atlanta (-11.7%) |
Increased in 12 metros |
New listings |
San Jose, CA (29.3%) Jacksonville, FL (21.2%) Las Vegas (21.2%) Miami (19.9%) Phoenix (16.4%) |
Atlanta (-9.8%) Minneapolis (-6.2%) Chicago (-5.4%) San Francisco (-4.9%) Portland, OR (-4.3%) |
Declined in 9 metros |
To view the full report, including charts, methodology and metro-level data, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-home-prices-record-high-rising-supply
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We run the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can have our renovations crew fix it up to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than $1.6 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000 people.
Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and WalkScore®.
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin's press center, click here.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240711467312/en/
Contacts
Redfin Journalist Services:
Kenneth Applewhaite
press@redfin.com
