U.S. Middle Market Fundamental Earnings Growth Remains Consistent

April 09, 2024 at 17:00 PM EDT

Companies have flexibility to manage the ongoing high interest rate environment

The Golub Capital Altman Index can provide early insight into financial performance of public companies and GDP in advance of earnings season

Middle market private companies in the Golub Capital Altman Index grew earnings by 11% during the first two months of the first quarter of 2024. Revenue grew 5% during the same period.

Lawrence E. Golub, CEO of Golub Capital, said, “Growth in Q1 2024 was solid and consistent with our expectations. A third consecutive quarter of double-digit EBITDA growth shows the continued strength and adaptability of private equity-owned middle market companies in today’s uncertain environment. The consistent fundamental earnings growth we’ve seen is giving companies valuable flexibility as they manage through this period of high interest rates. The strong performance reflected in the Golub Capital Altman Index for Q1 2024 offers investors an encouraging sign as they recalibrate their expectations for the trajectory of interest rates in the coming period. Resilient private equity-backed companies are attractively positioned even if the pace and magnitude of rate cuts fall short of the prevailing consensus.”

Dr. Edward I. Altman said, “The middle market showed strength in Q1 2024, with positive revenue and EBITDA growth in aggregate and across all subsectors of the Golub Capital Altman Index. Healthcare and Industrial businesses in our sample posted revenue and earnings growth of around 10% year-over-year, which suggests that well-managed businesses are weathering the ongoing tightness in labor markets. It isn’t surprising to see a fourth consecutive quarter of Technology earnings growth in excess of 20%, as mission-critical providers of productivity-enhancing enterprise software remain in high demand in this environment. In our view, the Golub Capital Altman Index for Q1 2024 is consistent with current consensus expectations of a ‘soft landing.’ That said, we believe investors would do well to focus on strategies designed to perform well across a range of scenarios.”

The Golub Capital Altman Index (“GCAI”), which is produced by Golub Capital in collaboration with credit expert Dr. Edward I. Altman, is the first and longest-running index based on actual revenue and earnings (defined as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or “EBITDA”) for middle market companies. It measures the median revenue and earnings growth of approximately 110–150 private U.S. companies in the loan portfolio of Golub Capital, a leading middle market lender. Reported shortly before public company quarterly earnings season, the GCAI has served as a reliable indicator of the overall growth rates in revenue and earnings of public companies in market indexes such as the S&P 500 and S&P SmallCap 600 (“S&P 600”), as well as quarterly Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”), according to statistical back-testing dating back to 2012, when data began to be tracked.

The size and diversity of the Golub Capital loan portfolio ensure that the confidentiality of all company-specific information used in the index is maintained in both the aggregate and industry segment data.

We believe the results (1) are representative of the general performance of middle market companies, which are a major contributor to U.S. private sector employment; (2) can be easily compared to the performance of the public companies that make up major stock indexes; (3) are relevant to the aggregate economic performance of the U.S. economy and (4) provide timely information for the investment community.

The companies in the GCAI operate in a wide range of industries. Results are provided for the total universe of GCAI constituents and by industry segment. Given the index’s limited exposure to Financials, Utilities, Energy and Materials, comparisons are made to the S&P 500 and S&P 600 as well as to “adjusted” versions of those indexes that exclude the aforementioned sectors.

About the Golub Capital Middle Market Report

The Golub Capital Middle Market Report analyzes the results of the Golub Capital Altman Index (“GCAI”), which measures the median revenue and earnings growth of approximately 110–150 privately owned companies in the Golub Capital loan portfolio for the first two months of each calendar quarter. It compares these results to the financial performance of well-known market indexes, including the S&P 500 and S&P SmallCap 600. The GCAI is produced by Golub Capital in collaboration with credit expert Dr. Edward I. Altman. Effective Q2 2022, the Golub Capital Altman Index (GCAI) excludes Golub Capital portfolio companies that have recurring revenue-based credit facilities. The data referenced herein may not reflect all companies in the loan portfolio of Golub Capital during the time periods indicated.

About Golub Capital

Golub Capital is a market-leading, award-winning direct lender and experienced credit asset manager. We specialize in delivering reliable, creative and compelling financing solutions to companies backed by private equity sponsors. Our sponsor finance expertise also forms the foundation of our Broadly Syndicated Loan and Credit Opportunities investment programs. We nurture long-term, win-win partnerships that inspire repeat business from private equity sponsors and investors.

As of January 1, 2024, Golub Capital had over 875 employees and over $65 billion of capital under management, a gross measure of invested capital including leverage. For more information, please visit golubcapital.com.

About Dr. Edward I. Altman

A leading expert on credit markets, Dr. Edward I. Altman is the Max L. Heine Professor of Finance, Emeritus at the NYU Stern School of Business, and Director of Research in Credit and Debt Markets at the NYU Salomon Center for the Study of Financial Institutions. He is currently an advisor to several foreign central banks. Professor Altman has published or edited two-dozen books and over 150 articles in scholarly finance, accounting and economic journals. He has been inducted into the Fixed Income Analysts Society Hall of Fame, served as President of the Financial Management Association, was an FMA Fellow, and was amongst the inaugural inductees into the Turnaround Management Association Hall of Fame. He received his MBA and Ph.D. in Finance from the University of California, Los Angeles.

Important Disclosure

The Golub Capital Altman Index is provided as an indicator only and does not constitute investment advice or the offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. Some of these statements constitute forward-looking statements, which may be predictions about future events, future performance, or future financial conditions. Some of these statements reflect opinions based upon the data presented in the Index, and these opinions may be incorrect. Actual results could vary materially from those implied or expressed in such forward-looking statements for any reason. The Golub Capital Altman Index has been created on the basis of information provided by third-party sources that are believed to be reliable, but the information has not been verified independently by Golub Capital. Golub Capital makes no warranty or representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such third-party information.