Although financial markets world-wide were buoyed by these aggressive policy actions, risk assets weakened in the fall of 2012. Global trade slowed as many European countries fell into recession and growth continued to decelerate in China. In the United States, stocks slid on lackluster corporate earnings and volatility rose in advance of the US Presidential election. In the post-election environment, investors became more concerned about the “fiscal cliff,” the automatic tax increases and spending cuts that had been scheduled to take effect at the beginning of 2013. High levels of global market volatility persisted through year-end due to fears that bipartisan gridlock would preclude a timely resolution, putting the US economy at high risk for recession. Ultimately, the worst of the fiscal cliff was averted with a last-minute tax deal, although decisions relating to spending cuts and the debt ceiling were postponed, leaving lingering uncertainty.

Investors shook off the nerve-wracking finale to 2012 and the New Year began with a powerful relief rally. Money that had been pulled to the sidelines amid year-end tax-rate uncertainty poured back into the markets in January. Key indicators signaling modest but broad-based improvements in the world’s major economies underpinned the rally. Underlying this aura of comfort was the absence of negative headlines out of Europe. Against this backdrop, global equities surged through January while rising US Treasury yields pressured high quality fixed income assets (as prices move in the opposite direction of yields).

However, bond markets regained strength in February (as yields once again dropped) when global economic momentum slowed and investors toned down their risk appetite. International stock markets weakened amid a resurgence of macro risk out of Europe. A stalemate presidential election in Italy was a reminder that political instability continued to plague the eurozone and a severe banking crisis in Cyprus underscored the fragility of the broader European banking system. In the United States, stocks continued to rise, but at a more moderate pace. Investors grew more cautious given uncertainty as to how long the central bank would continue its stimulus programs. How government spending cuts would impact the already slow economic recovery was another concern. But improving labor market data and rising home prices boosted sentiment in March, pushing major US stock indices to all-time highs. Investors scaled back their enthusiasm in April due to a series of disappointing economic reports. On the whole, US stocks have performed well thus far in 2013 as the US economy demonstrated enough resilience to allay fears of recession, but growth has remained slow enough to dissuade the US Federal Reserve from changing its stance.

Despite continued headwinds for global growth, risk assets have rallied, driven largely by investors seeking meaningful yields in the ongoing low-interest-rate environment. For the 6- and 12-month periods ended April 30, 2013, US and international stocks and high yield bonds posted strong gains. Emerging market equities lagged the rally as the uneven pace of global growth raised doubts that developing economies could thrive in the near term. US Treasury yields were highly volatile over the past 12 months, although they continue to remain low from a historical perspective. US Treasury and investment-grade bonds generated modest returns in this environment, while tax-exempt municipal bonds benefited from favorable supply-and-demand dynamics. Near-zero short term interest rates continued to keep yields on money market securities near their all-time lows.

Market conditions have improved over the past couple of years, but investors still remain highly uncertain and many of the old ways of investing no longer work. That’s why the new world of investing calls for a new approach. One that seeks out more opportunities in more places across a broader array of investments in a portfolio designed to move freely as the markets move up and down. Visit www.blackrockplan.com to learn more about how to take action.

Sincerely,

  
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“Despite continued headwinds for global growth, risk assets have rallied, driven largely by investors seeking meaningful yields in the ongoing low-interest-rate environment.”